‘Burnham bounce’ and World Cup lift mood in July, says data firm
📰 source: theguardian_business · 💼 business
uk consumer confidence jumped in july by its biggest margin in nearly three years, according to data firm gfk. the 'burnham bounce' — after andy burnham's byelection victory on 18 june, which made him almost certain to become prime minister — along with england's world cup run and sunny weather lifted the mood. the gfk index rose six points to -17, the highest since january and the biggest rise since november 2023. consumers' view of the economy over the next year improved by eight points, and their view of the past year by ten points. hopes for an end to the middle east conflict also helped.
neil bellamy, gfk's consumer insights director, said july delivered 'a wave of optimism' and a sense of fresh start with a new prime minister. but the increase was held back by a more cautious view of personal finances, which rose only two points. bellamy warned the index was still well below levels seen ten years ago, before the brexit vote. he said the bounce would require consistent delivery against deep cost of living challenges and low growth.
recent events in the middle east could undermine burnham's plans: the us conflict with iran reignited, sending brent crude to $100 a barrel. inflation fell to 2.6% in june but was forecast to climb to near 4% in november, before the oil price spike.
why it matters: uk consumer confidence jump driven by political change and world cup may be short-lived if oil prices rise further.
source: theguardian_business
sentiment: +0.60 · impact: 0.40