From 'oil' to 'shock', here's what Kalshi traders expect Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will say this week

📰 source: cnbc_topnews · 💼 business

kalshi traders are betting on specific words from fed chairman kevin warsh at this week's press conference. an event contract shows over 50% odds he'll say 'shock' and 74% odds he'll say 'oil'. the bets come after a pause in us-iran fighting, which briefly pushed brent crude above $100 before falling back below $89. the fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but odds of a hike this week have risen to 38% from 16% last week, per cme fedwatch. another kalshi contract gives 68% odds of a hike this year. bank of america says it's 'textbook policy' for the fed to avoid responding to an energy supply shock, while evercore isi notes it would be odd to hike right after a good june inflation print but can't rule it out given warsh's unclear strategy and renewed conflict.

why it matters: market bets on fed chairman's language signal inflation and oil shock fears, with rate hike odds rising despite june inflation data.

source: cnbc_topnews
sentiment: -0.20 · impact: 0.60