UK faces ‘very difficult trade-offs’ in budget because of Iran war, say analysts

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📰 source: theguardian_business · 📚 research

uk faces 'very difficult trade-offs' in the autumn budget due to the iran war keeping oil prices and inflation high, warns thinktank niesr. oil briefly crossed $100/barrel and the strait of hormuz has been almost closed since march. niesr expects inflation to rise to 3.8% over the next seven months, forcing chancellor john healey to find an extra £24bn by the end of the decade to maintain services and welfare. growth forecasts are cut to 1.1% this year and next, costing £28bn in lost growth compared to january. niesr director david aikman says borrowing to ease the strain would be a mistake, urging tax or spending cuts instead. the bank of england meets thursday, with markets expecting rates held then raised to 4% later this year.


why it matters: persistent inflation and a £24bn fiscal gap force tough budget choices, potentially squeezing growth and testing gilt markets.


source: theguardian_business
sentiment: -0.40 · impact: 0.70

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