theguardian_business

Will prediction market ‘catch fire’ in UK, replicating US boom?

📰 source: theguardian_business · 💼 business

prediction markets like polymarket and kalshi have boomed in the us, with estimated trading volumes of $45bn during the world cup (though actual stakes are closer to $5.6bn/month). they wrap betting in financial trading jargon to circumvent state sports-betting bans. in the uk, regulators are clear: sports betting needs a gambling licence, and binary options are banned. yet uk political events have seen millions in bets, suggesting some britons are using vpns to access these sites. polymarket says it takes compliance seriously but the guardian easily set up an account via vpn. some uk operators like easybets and smarkets are adopting prediction market designs. concerns include insider trading and manipulation. analyst bowden thinks the user experience is not as good as uk sportsbooks, making a uk boom unlikely.

why it matters: regulatory and user experience hurdles suggest prediction markets may struggle to replicate us growth in the uk.

source: theguardian_business
sentiment: +0.20 · impact: 0.30

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